MLB Twitter is convinced Royals, Bobby Witt Jr. took a page from 2017 Astros book (2024)

There is nobody hotter in MLB right now than Bobby Witt Jr. Not only does he have multiple hits in four of the seven games he has played in August (including a two-home run game on Wednesday), but he had a ridiculous July in which he slashed .489/.520/.833 with seven home runs, 22 RBI, and eight doubles. No, there were no typos there. Witt hit almost .500 for the entire month with a 1.353 OPS, keeping the Kansas City Royals in the postseason race.

That month combined with Witt's torrid start to August has him slashing .349/.394/.606 with 22 home runs, 84 RBI, and 22 stolen bases this season. In addition to leading the league in batting, Witt also leads the league in runs (99), hits (162), and total bases (281). His bat paired with his elite base running and defensive abilities has him as one of the best players in the game. He's not quite Aaron Judge, but would anyone argue that he's been the second-best player this season?

His statistics are insane, but when doing a deeper dive, one specific thing sticks out. His home/road splits are extremely different. They're so different, in fact, to the point where some MLB fans on Twitter have wondered if Witt might've taken a page from the 2017 Houston Astros book.

I mean, look at these splits!

Witt has been a solid player on the road, but his numbers at Kauffman Stadium are at a whole other level.

The same can be said for the entire Royals team, really. As a team, they're tied for second in the majors as of this writing with a .773 OPS at home. Away from Kauffman Stadium, they're 23rd in the majors with a .674 OPS. Nearly a 100-point difference.

As we know, the 2017 Astros are known for cheating their way to an eventual World Series title by stealing signs. While Witt's splits are egregious, there's no real evidence to suggest that the Royals and their star shortstop are cheating.

Let's look into some things that might disprove the theory that Witt and/or the Royals are cheating.

First, let's look at Salvador Perez's numbers. They're far better on the road.

Perez is slashing .292/.338/.503 with 10 home runs in 53 games on the road, and is slashing .269/.343/.443 with 10 home runs in 60 games at home. As was the case with Witt, he's fine both home and away, but one is clearly better than the other. The only difference is, though, that he's far better away from home. If the Royals were cheating, why are Perez's numbers so much better on the road? Wouldn't they want him to improve his home numbers?

Another thing to look at here is Park Factor. Kauffman Stadium has a Park Factor of 105, making it one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors, even more than Great American Ballpark and Citizens Bank Park. It doesn't give up many home runs, but with the outfield being as spacious as it is, plenty of extra-base hits can be hit at that stadium leading to more hits and runs.

Witt's splits might look egregious, but when giving a closer look into his stats, he has 12 home runs at home compared to 10 on the road. Comparable. The major difference is his extra-base hit totals. He has hit 25 doubles and eight triples at home compared to eight doubles and two triples on the road. That Kauffman Stadium outfield has a lot to do with that.

The last thing to really pay attention to is Witt's BAbip numbers. At home, he has a BAbip of .426. This essentially means he's hitting .426 when he puts the ball into play at home, which is absurd. BAbip does not include home runs or strikeouts. On the road, that number dips to .322, a mark that is still above the roughly .300 league average, but nowhere near .426. In other words, Witt is getting extremely lucky, finding holes at home at an unsustainably high rate.

To sum up, if Witt and the Royals were cheating, there'd be reason to believe that everyone on their team would be hitting much better at home. As evidenced by Perez's numbers, that isn't the case. Kauffman Stadium's outfield and Witt's batted-ball luck appear to be why he is having as much success at home as he is.